Pacific and Indian Ocean Positives Post-election (for now) – KTH

While Western European allies are struggling to accept the election of President Trump, news from the Pacific and Indian oceans have been far better from the pro-American viewpoint.

The first news of celebratory victory came from the archipelago nation of Palau, one of the three compact of free associated states (COFAs). These completely free and sovereign countries are part of the former Trust Territories of the Pacific Islands held in trusteeship by the UN with responsibility to the USA.

Palau, along with the Marshall Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia would go on to choose a relationship with their former trustee nation that would allow the USA to hold exclusive military jurisdiction in the now independent nations in exchange for access to many American domestic programs like the sharing of the US Postal Service for example.

The Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands chose to become an American territory instead. Combined with Guam, these entities have allowed America to operate an area the size of the continental US.

The relationship between the four nations has been close, but not without controversy. One of the more recent controversies has been the growth of Mainland China.

Mainland China has become a key economic and military power and their benefits often come with stipulations. One of these has been for each Pacific nation to no longer recognize the Republic of China better known as Taiwan.

Another has been to replace Western powers such as the USA to make the People’s Republic of China (PRC) the key allies.

The COFA nations were not immune to this and Palau was extremely affected.

For example, tourism is a key industry there and Mainland China promised an excess of their citizens to visit Palau in exchange for closer relations and a switch of recognition from Taiwan.

The current president, American-born Palaun and Andrews University and UCLA alumn, Surangel Whipps Jr., decided to go against the blackmail even during the heart of COVID. Not everyone was happy.

Along with these economic and political considerations for a switch, there have also been worries that the Pacific could become a hot bed of military conflict. Therefore, many citizens of these nations have tried to distance their Western alliances to not become a military target.

Thus, when it became known to the wider public that the COFA agreement renewals were due in 2023 and 2024, there were debates around each nation. Yet, luckily, election results, internal debates, and other factors led back to renewals on behalf of the three nations.

The only problem remained: the US.

American lawmakers dragged their feet on approving the funding needed for these renewals. Both Republicans and Democrats often declined on the basis of other political dealings within the bills of these agreements. This led many Pacific commentators to wonder if Americans even valued these alliances.

Thus, when agreements were finally approved of on the US side in March, many wondered how the pro-American candidates would do in up-coming elections across Oceania.

A vital election was the 2024 Palauan Presidential election.

Former President, Tommy Remengesau, was running against the aforementioned President Surangel Whipps Jr.

President Whipps Jr. has advocated for more American military presence and has supported various technologies to help both nations’ partnerships in defense, yet the Palauan Senate has not always approved.

Thus, it was a neck and neck election on Tuesday Novemeber 5th which President Whipps Jr. won 5,626 votes to 4,103.

This was good news for President-elect Trump and the transition team who is publicly keen on keeping their alliances in the Pacific.

Another contentious center in the Pacific has been the Melanesian region where Mainland China has nearly overtaken the Western powers as the key ally.

However, Papua New Guinea has been one country to buck the trend.

Papua New Guinea sits on the island of New Guinea split with Indonesia, and features other islands around it.

One of these islands is Bougainville, a place that lies in the Solomon Archipelago, most of which belongs to the Solomon Islands.

Bougainville is strategically significant because it keeps the territorial waters of the Solomon Islands which now are aligned with Mainland China from international waters in the north.

Yet, Bougainville has its own independence struggle.

After a Civil War, both the Bougainvilleans and Papuans agreed to a future referendum on the matter which the Autonomous Region of Bougainville voted for independence on. The agreement stipulated that their independence should come between 2023 and 2027.

Yet, no Western power nor any others want to take a side because doing so might risk a future bad relationship with Papua New Guinea or an independent Bougainville.

Until recently, Bougainville leadership had remained anonymous in who they wished for a close alliance with but then decided to break news at the end of last month.

Patrick Winn, a journalist for The World website, wrote that North Bougainville’s President, Ishmael Toroama, stated that he wants American sponsorship for a new nation and for the USA to help re-develop their resource rich gold and copper mine.

As a reward, the USA would be allowed to build a new military base in the new nation.

While Americans are yet to respond officially, it appears that Papuans are not objecting. If this holds true, then both nations will likely land in the Western camp securing one of the Pacific’s greatest quagmires.

Lastly have been the reports from various news companies that President-elect Trump hopes to rescind the yet to be formally approved deal by United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, with Indian Ocean arhipelago nation Mauritius off the East African coast. The deal would see the UK give sovereignty over the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) to Mauritius who has long claimed them in exchange for a 99 year lease agreement that would see British and American military retain operational control over the main island: Diego Garcia.

Some commentators have applauded this deal saying that not giving up sovereignty of the BIOT would make the UK and the Western world look deligitimate in proceedings with other nations as these other nations like Russia could assert their claim to part of Ukraine using British control over the BIOT as justification. There were other concerns too and experts said the 99-year agreement allows the West to retain military control for some time.

However, nearly all commentators agreed that the UK losing the BIOT made it less powerful and influential.

And, ever since the Hong Kong and Macau deals that have slowly been eroded, Westerners are not comfortable with handing over territory in exchange for promises often not kept.

Mauritius has also been more tied to the PRC as of late, despite having a majority of its people of Indian descent and its religion being pluralistically Hindu.

Given recent reports of weakening supplies for the American Navy and America’s lack of ship building capabilities compared to their Pacific compatriots, as well as recent issues for the Western world in the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea, it perplexed many strategists why a key military ally like the UK would give up territory.

But, a quick answer from many news sources suggested that President Biden’s team strongly suggested this deal.

Now, President-elect Trump hopes to stop this deal from happening.

If the USA can help keep a large part of British territory, it will go along way in warming the relations between the British public and President Trump.

Of course, no one knows the future of North Bougainville or the British Indian Ocean Territory, but the latest developments since the US and Palaun presidential elections have been good for the West in the two oceans where 67% of global trade transits.