The insane number of March Madness upsets each year is what makes the NCAAB Division 1 Tournament so exciting! But what round produces the most surprising wins?
We collected data from all tournament editions in the 21st century to find out. Let’s explore the numbers together to find out what March Madness round produces the most upsets.
Average Number of Upsets Per Round in March Madness
Here are the average number of March Madness upsets per round since 2000, with all data collected from the official NCAA website:
There’s an obvious point to make here: the early rounds are where you should be looking for March Madness upsets! Just over 20% of the games in the first round (or one in five) end up with a win for the underdog, while that number drops to just under 15% for the second round.
The Sweet 16 and Elite 8 still deliver upsets fairly regularly (just under 10% for both rounds), while the Final Four (2.08%) and the Championship Game (0%!) rarely have surprising outcomes.
The NCAA website doesn’t provide a clear methodology of what counts as an upset. The seeds are the biggest factor, but that’s not always the case. If the difference is small (like a #9 seed beating an #8 seed, for example), that doesn’t not count.
After investigating each year, we came to the conclusion that the lack of upsets in late rounds stems from the fact that games at this stage rarely have a clear-cut favorite.
With that in mind, let’s explore each round separate.
March Madness First Round Upsets
The first two days of the NCAA Tournament are a breeding ground for upsets, which is why this is the best time for betting on March Madness underdogs! It makes sense that the highest average of upsets happens during the first round, as there are 64 teams, which means more chances for a lower seed to overcome the odds.
Since 2000, there is an average upset rate of 20.05%, with a high of 31.25% in 2016. In that year, there were ten upsets in the opening round over Thursday and Friday. One #2 seed fell, along with a #3, #4, two #5 seeds, three #6 seeds, and two #7 seeds. The biggest upset was #15 Middle Tennessee taking down #2 Michigan State by a score of 90-81. #12 Little Rock also defeated #5 Purdue in an 85-83 double-overtime game.
Since 2019, four of the five years have yielded an upset rate of 21.88% or higher, including 25% in 2019. That could speak to the lower-seeded schools getting better, and closing the gap on the higher-seeded teams.
It should also be noted that 2016 featured the first #1 seed to be eliminated in the first round as #16 UMBC pounded #1 seed Virginia to make NCAA Tournament history! It looks like March Madness is somehow getting even madder recently, at least early on.
March Madness Second Round Upsets
The second round is just behind the first round in terms of March Madness upsets at 14.58%. While there wasn’t a single upset in 2024, the three previous years yielded upset rates of 25% (2023), 31.25% (2022), and 31.25% (2021). You can feasibly expect to see a few second-round knockouts in 2025!
In 2021, #8 Loyola Chicago defeated took down the first #1 seed of the tournament, Illinois, by a score of 71-58 to lead the five second-round upsets that year. #8 North Carolina edged #1 Baylor 93-86 to lead the way in 2022. #8 Arkansas squeaked out a 72-71 win over #1 Kansas in 2023. Top seeds should tread carefully in the second round of the NCAA Tournament!
It’s still very dangerous, with many favorites of the best March Madness betting sites going home before the Sweet 16.
March Madness Sweet 16 Upsets
The average upset rate drops to 9.53% for the Sweet 16, although a couple of years recently have spawned major upsets! In 2022, the upset rate was 37.5% as we saw four lower-seeded teams win, highlighted by a pair of #1 seeds going down! #4 Arkansas defeated #1 Gonzaga 74-68, while #5 Houston beat #1 Arizona 71-64.
In 2023, the upset rate went up to 50%, and two more #1 seeds were eliminated. #5 Miami took out #1 Houston 89-75, while fellow #5 San Diego State dropped #1 Alabama 71-64. Last year, there was only one upset in the Sweet 16 as #11 North Carolina State triumphed over #2 Marquette 67-58.
You might think you’re safe in this round, but these years have shown us that favorites should be very careful.
March Madness Elite 8 Upsets
The Elite Eight has produced a similar upset rate to the Sweet Sixteen at 9.38%! In 2023, there was a staggering upset rate of 75% as three of the games went to the lower seed. #5 Miami conquered #2 Texas 88-81 to make it to the Final Four. #4 UConn throttled #3 Gonzaga 82-54, while #9 FAU edged out #3 Kansas 79-76.
In 2024, we had just one upset in the Elite Eight as #11 North Carolina State continued their run after eliminating #2 Marquette! The Wolf Pack handled their ACC rivals, #4 Duke, 76-64.
But as you get to this point of March Madness, the cream usually rises to the top. In 17 of the 24 years, we haven’t seen any upsets in the Elite Eight!
March Madness Final Four Upsets
The March Madness upset rate by rounds drops dramatically at the Final Four, where there have only been 2.08% of average upsets. There has only been one year with upsets in the Final Four, and that was in 2022 when we got one!
#8 North Carolina ruined the season of their biggest rivals, #2 Duke, by winning 81-77. This was a massive deal as it was the final game for legendary Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski. The fact that he lost his last-ever game to the Tar Heels has to be something that “Coach K” still thinks about regularly!
March Madness Championship Game Upsets
Finally, we get to the championship round, where there hasn’t been an upset in the past 24 years! It’s tough because when you get to the title game, it’s usually a pair of #1 seeds who are excellent. The biggest upset in March Madness championship game history came way back in 1985, when an eighth-seeded Villanova team beat #1 Georgetown 66-64.
However, we haven’t seen an upset of that caliber in the 21st century, so it’s best to stick to the favorites when you’re betting on March Madness odds for the championship game!
What Years Produced the Most March Madness Upsets in the 21st Century?
2023 produced the most upsets we’ve seen so far since 2000! There was a total of 18 upsets, although it stopped at the Elite Eight, while the Final Four and championship game went chalk. 2022 was next with 14 upsets, and we got the North Carolina upset over Duke in the Final Four.
2021 also had 14 upsets, anchored by a wild first weekend in which 12 of the 14 upsets came in the first and second rounds! 2016 had featured 14 more upsets, with ten coming in the first round alone! 2011 had 12 upsets, and the biggest was #11 VCU beating #1 Kansas 71-61 in the Elite Eight.
As you can see, it’s impossible to find a method in this madness. The only thing certain is that certain favorites will go home early!
How to Spot March Madness Upsets?
If you’re looking to bet on March Madness underdogs, it’s best to get it out of the way in the first two rounds. There is a high level of volatility over these first four days of the NCAA Tournament. For example, look at the 5-12 and 6–11 games for a first-round upset. Since 1985, #12 seeds have beaten #5 seeds 35% of the time, while #11 seeds have won 39.1% of the time over a #6 seed. The top four seeds will usually get a scare in the first round, but they usually pull it out.
You can also use tools, such as our TSG AI picks model, which goes through the current data and gives you a prediction. This does a lot of the work for you, and makes things easier, considering the sheer number of games you’re trying to handicap. Let the technology do the work for you!
It’s also important to find a bookmaker that offers high odds on potential upsets. Based on our experience betting on all March Madness underdogs in 2024 and 2025, BetOnline often has the highest price for upsets.
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About the Author
Finn is an experienced writer (having published articles under the name Phil Bowman) and longtime sports enthusiast based in Europe. His particular passion lies in soccer, as both a die-hard fan and seasoned bettor. That said, he’ll dabble in anything involving a ball, bat, or boxing gloves! He’s learned from his share of bad bets over the years and is keen to impart his wisdom so you don’t make the same mistakes. Since joining TSG, Finn has also gained valuable knowledge in the world of online casinos.
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