Cannes Film Festival Palme d’Or 2025 Odds, Predictions, Picks

Sound of Falling (+400)

• • Director: Mascha Schilinski
  • Cast: Luise Heyer, Hanna Heckt, Lena Urzendowsky, Lea Drinda
  • Expected Release Date: September 11, 2025 (Germany)

German screenwriter and director Mascha Schilinski is aiming for her first Palme d’Or at the 2025 Cannes Film Festival. Oddsmakers are high on Sound of Falling’s chances, but is this rooted in reality of what the voting jury believes?

Filmmaker/Director:

Schilinski’s work isn’t well-known in America, but she is a popular figure in the German film scene. Like Sound of Falling, Schilinski’s films are primarily German-speaking.

The 41-year-old native of Berlin has been recognized for her directing credits on Die Katze (2015) and Die Tochter (2017). Die Katze was honored at the Filmfestival Max Ophüls Preis in Germany, but the Sound of Falling receiving such high accolades is by far the pinnacle of her career.

Plot/Cast:

Portraying Christina in the film, Luise Heyer is the lead actress of the Sound of Falling. The film follows Christina and three fellow farmworkers on a remote farm in Germany.

Set apart by different time periods across a century, the women share decades of secrets within the walls of the farm. Despite the years between the four women, their lives are all intertwined and shared bond from their experiences on the farm.

Sound of Falling is receiving incredible buzz leading up to the Cannes Film Festival. It is by far the most hyped film of this year’s festival in France.

Ce sera l’un des événements en début de compète, une nouvelle image de SOUND OF FALLING de l’Allemande Mascha Schilinski #cannes2025 pic.twitter.com/rItyp1wRNg

— Thomas Gastaldi (@snooptom) May 6, 2025

Although the movie won’t be released until September, there is growing anticipation of Schilinski’s drama. If the jury votes on the Sound of Falling like it’s receiving attention in the public, it’s a shoo-in to win!

The buzz has impacted the 2025 Palme d’Or betting odds, as it’s the leading contender for bettors, too.

Sentimental Value (+600)

• • Director: Joachim Trier
  • Cast: Renate Reinsve, Elle Fanning, Stellan Skarsgard, Cory Michael Smith
  • Expected Release Date: August 25, 2025

Joachim Trier returns to the Cannes Film Festival seeking his first Palme d’Or. He’s been nominated twice in the past, including most recently, for The Worst Person in the World (2021).

Is this the year that Trier breaks through with Sentimental Value and leaves France with the distinguished award?

Filmmaker/Director:

Trier is a regular fixture at the Cannes Film Festival. The jury is familiar with the director’s work, but he has never been able to impress them enough to win the Palme d’Or!

He came close as one of the 19 nominees in 2021 for The Worst Person in the World. Six years earlier, in 2015, Trier made his Cannes Film Festival debut with Louder Than Bombs (2015).

Trier also worked on Thelma (2017), Oslo, August 31st (2011), and Reprise (2006) as a director. However, Sentimental Value might be his most highly anticipated film yet, so understandably, the movie has among the best odds to win the Palme d’Or.

Plot/Cast:

Based in Oslo, Norway, Sentimental Value is a comedy-drama that centers on Nora, played by Renate Reinsve, and her sister, Agnes, portrayed by actress Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas.

First look at Joachim Trier’s ‘SENTIMENTAL VALUE’

• Starring Renate Reinsve, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning & Cory Michael Smith

• Follows sisters mourning the loss of their mother when their father randomly reappears

• Premieres at Cannes in May pic.twitter.com/ngxVwHGtUB

— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) April 10, 2025

The story examines the inner workings and life of a successful stage actress, Nora, and her younger sister, and the sudden return of their father, Gustav, played by Stellan Skarsgard, into their lives after a long absence.

While Gustav is interested in working with Nora and offering her a leading role in his next film, she rebuffs him and doesn’t want her father back in her life. The film has a hint of comedy at times but primarily focuses on the emotions and roller coaster ride of a broken family.

Before Sound of Falling took the spotlight as a top contender, Sentimental Value was viewed as the clear favorite to win the Palme d’Or. In my opinion, it’s still on track to be a potential winner, so this isn’t a film to discard for your Cannes Palme d’Or 2025 picks!

Nouvelle Vague (+600)

• • Director: Richard Linklater
  • Cast: Zoey Deutch, Guillaume Marbeck, Aubry Dullin
  • Expected Release Date: October 8, 2025

French film Nouvelle Vague is one of the top betting favorites to win the Palme d’Or. Currently, the movie shares the same price and probability as Sentimental Value.

Director Richard Linklater has received five Academy Award nominations but has never won an Oscar. He was nominated for a Palme d’Or in 2005 and finds himself back in the running for the highest honor at Cannes nearly two decades later!

Filmmaker/Director:

In 2006, the American director was nominated for the Palme d’Or for Fast Food Nation (2006). That was a popular mockumentary at the time, but it didn’t exactly receive critical acclaim.

It also didn’t receive enough votes from the jury to win the Palme d’Or. Linklater’s most recent rise to the top was his Academy Award nominations for Boyhood. He received nods in the Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay categories.

In the same year, Linklater won a Golden Globe, as well as two BAFTAs, and an Independent Spirit Award! Linklater is also well-known for his directing roles on the School of Rock (2003), Dazed and Confused (1993), and Before Sunrise (1995).

He is a household name among the jury members and has some weight behind his Palme d’Or bid in France. Among the contenders, Linklater has the biggest star power by far!

Plot/Cast:

Nouvelle Vague follows the story of the creation of Jean-Luc Godard’s film Breathless (1960). Little-known French actor Guillaume Marbeck portrays Godard in the movie. This is his first acting credit since 2014.

In the meantime, he’s been working as a photographer in Paris. This is a huge break and role for Marbeck, which could result in his work winning the Palme d’Or!

Richard Linklater’s new film ‘NOUVELLE VAGUE’ will premiere at Cannes Film Festival in May.

The film depicts the production of Jean-Luc Godard’s cinematic classic ‘BREATHLESS’ pic.twitter.com/6A7iGk8ZPD

— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) April 10, 2025

The film, which is shot in black and white, shows Godard as he works his way up from a Cahiers du Cinema critic to a prominent filmmaker. Moreover, it also recognizes the birth of the French New Wave movement in cinema.

Actress Zoey Deutch portrays Jean Seberg, who was an American actress and icon of her time. Seberg starred in Breathless (1960) and played a critical role in the French New Wave and for her work in the crime-drama.

1. Alpha (+700)

Shiv Rawail’s Alpha is just outside of being one of the top Palme d’Or betting favorites in 2025. However, I believe that Alpha should be one of the leading contenders to get the top award at Cannes!

The French film follows Alpha, a troubled 13-year-old who lives alongside her mother in the late 1980s. When she returns home from school with a tattoo on her arm, Alpha’s life changes in an instant.

Alpha has a chance to steal the show at Cannes, so I recommend a small bet on the film to win the Palme d’Or.

2. Eddington (+1000)

At +1000 odds, Eddington has just a 9.1% implied probability to win the 2025 Palme d’Or. The western horror flick directed by Ari Aster features a powerhouse lineup of actors, including Austin Butler, Pedro Pascal, Joaquin Phoenix, and Emma Stone.

There is serious Oscar buzz around Eddington, which focuses on a small-town New Mexico mayor and sheriff who have a major conflict during the COVID-19 pandemic. Eddington has serious potential and is likely to be a film you hear about a lot through the rest of the year!